It was eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
